Kinetics of Development of Covid19 and its Prediction Possibilities in the Case of a Small Statistical Set-The Case of Latvia_Crimson Publishers

 Kinetics of Development of Covid19 and its Prediction Possibilities in the Case of a Small Statistical Set-The Case of Latvia by Lilian T in Trends in Telemedicine & E-health



Models of kinetics of development of COVID-19 are essential for prognosis and preparedness of medical facilities for treating of patients.

Methods: We built a predictive model based on theoretical formulas for normal distribution and corrected it based on real number of cases in Latvia. The process included two stages: (I) simple modelling for distribution of cases without accounting for a state of emergency; (II) correction of the model for changes due to a state of emergency and a real situation. A choice of model parameters was performed comparing the real and the theoretical cumulative curves and based on the least sum of square. Considering in addition the tiredness of people to follow a state of emergency rules, we modelled the cumulative number of cases in Latvia till the end of 2020.

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